New tools in non-linear modelling and prediction

In this paper we give an account of a new change of perspective in non-linear modelling and prediction as applied to smooth systems. The core element of these developments is the Gamma test a non-linear modelling and analysis tool which allows us to examine the nature of a hypothetical input/output relationship in a numerical data-set. In essence, the Gamma test allows us to efficiently calculate that part of the variance of the output which cannot be accounted for by the existence of any smooth model based on the inputs, even though this model be unknown. A key aspect of this tool is its speed: the Gamma test has time complexity O( ), where M is the number of data-points. For data-sets consisting of a few thousand points and a reasonable number of attributes, a single run of the Gamma test typically takes a few seconds. Around this essentially simple procedure a new set of analytical tools has evolved which allow us to model smooth non-linear systems directly from the data with a precision and confidence that hitherto was inaccessible. In this paper we briefly describe the Gamma test, its benefits in model identification and model building, and then in more detail explain and motivate the procedures which facilitate a Gamma analysis. We briefly report on a case study applying these ideas to the practical problem of predicting level and flow rates in the Thames valley river basin. Finally we speculate on the future development and enhancement of these techniques into areas such as datamining and the production of complex non-linear models directly from data via graphical representations of process charts and automated Gamma analysis of each input-output node.     

A new technique for the identification of ultrasonic flaw signals using deconvolution

The identification of ultrasonic flaw signals is a difficult task in the angle beam ultrasonic testing of welded joints due to the presence of non-relevant signals from the geometric reflectors such as weld-roots and counter-bores. This paper describes a new approach to identify ultrasonic flaw signals in such a problematic situation. A similarity function is defined as the deconvolution of a target signal by a reference signal. The similarity functions for the same type of flaws/references are symmetric bandlimited impulse-like patterns with larger amplitudes while those for different types of flaws/references are asymmetrical broad patterns with relatively smaller amplitudes. Therefore, ultrasonic signals could be identified by the pattern of the similarity function. In the initial experiments, the proposed technique showed great potential for identifying ultrasonic flaw signals in the inspection of weld joints.     

Recovery of An Unknown Flux in Parabolic Problems with Nonstandard Boundary Conditions: Error Estimates

In this paper, we consider a 2nd order semilinear parabolic initial boundary value problem (IBVP) on a bounded domain ^N, with nonstandard boundary conditions (BCs). More precisely, at some part of the boundary we impose a Neumann BC containing an unknown additive space-constant (t), accompanied with a nonlocal (integral) Dirichlet side condition.We design a numerical scheme for the approximation of a weak solution to the IBVP and derive error estimates for the approximation of the solution u and also of the unknown function .     

Ultrasonic Broadband Spectrometry of Liquids A Research Tool in Pure and Applied Chemistry and Chemical Physics

This review is a survey of the many scientific applications of ultrasonic broadbandspectrometry (absorption and velocity measurements with coherent sound waves)in liquids and liquid systems, covering, at present, a frequency range from nearly10 kHz to 10 GHz. Ultrasonic spectrometry has proved to be an almost universalresearch tool in many laboratories, one that is useful for investigation of variouschemical, biochemical, and physicochemical systems. Sound waves traversingliquids induce periodic perturbations in pressure and temperature, which can shiftequilibria, resulting in characteristic sound absorption and velocity dispersionspectra. An analysis of such spectra yields valuable information about thermodynamic and kinetic parameters of the particular system that is often difficult toobtain by other methods. Since such periodic perturbations imposed on the systemare incremental in nearly all cases, the system can be studied under equilibriumconditions. All nonlinear effects (heating, nonconstant fluid compressibility, andothers) are negligible, permitting, for instance, the application of linearized rateequations. In this review, various examples of measured broadband spectra arepresented. Related elementary processes are discussed. Among these are ionicand molecular reactions, including mechanisms of association and complexation,proton transfer, solvation, isomerization, interconversion, side-group rotation,hydrogen-bonding, as well as stacking processes and micelle formation. Specialattention will be given to the extensive research on chemical relaxation.Fundamental early and recent publications are cited and discussed. Many referencesare included with particular emphasis on less well known research and publicationsfrom countries of the former USSR. This review aims at a demonstration of thewidespread applications of modern ultrasonic techniques in many fields ofliquid-state research.     

用可移动电流丝方法重建HL-2A等离子体边界的研究

根据Shafranov电流密度矩理论，给出了用可移动电流丝方法重建HL-2A装置等离子体边界的具体计算方法，研究了用可移动电流丝方法(VCF法)重建边界的可行性.VCF法与固定电流丝方法(FCF法)和有限电流元法(FCE法)相比，最大的优点就是用1—3个可移动电流丝就可以准确地重建位置和小半径快速变化的等离子体位形，这正好弥补了FCF法的不足.将可移动电流丝方法和FCF法相结合，可以实现全程等离子体放电的边界实时显示和等离子体的位形控制. 关键词： 可移动电流丝方法 边界识别     

参数未知的不同阶数混沌系统广义同步及参数估计

采用扩阶方法(使响应系统和驱动系统的维数相同)，把不同阶数混沌系统的广义同步问题转化为相同阶数混沌系统之间的广义同步，基于Lyapunov稳定性定理和自适应控制方法(用于相同阶数混沌系统的同步)，给出了自适应控制器和参数自适应律，进而实现了不同阶数混沌系统的广义同步.将该方法应用于参数未知的超Lü，Lorenz，广义Lorenz和Liu等系统之间的广义混沌同步，理论证明了该方法可以使这些系统达到渐近广义同步，并且可以辨识驱动系统和响应系统的所有参数，数值模拟进一步证明了该方法的有效性.     

北京谱仪Ⅲ飞行时间计数器系统刻度中的关联分析

利用电子对事例对北京谱仪Ⅲ飞行时间的测量误差, 以及不同测量之间的关联因子随击中位置的变化进行了仔细的研究. 加权的飞行时间由不同的测量值及其相关的误差矩阵计算而得. 蒙特卡罗研究表明. 为北京谱仪Ⅲ开发的关联分析算法 可以正确地处理包含公有误差项的多个实验测量结果的合并, 并且能够为粒子鉴别提供可靠的飞行时间信息.     

深过冷Ag-Cu-Ge三元共晶合金的相组成与凝固特征

在Ag_38.5Cu_33.4Ge_28.1三元共晶合金的深过冷实验中，获得的最大过冷度为175 K(0.22T_E). XRD分析表明，不同过冷条件下其共晶组织均由(Ag),(Ge)和η(Cu₃Ge)三相组成. 在小过冷条件下，三个共晶相协同生长，凝固组织粗大.随着过冷度的增大，共晶组织明显细化，(Ge)相与其他两相分离，以初生相方式生长，而(Ag)相与η相始终呈二相层片共晶方式共生生长. 当过冷度超过80 K时，初生相(Ge)由小过冷时的块状转变为具有小面相特征的枝晶方式生长. 部分小面相(Ge)枝晶出现规则的花状，花瓣数介于5—8之间，并且过冷度越大(Ge)相越容易分瓣. 花状(Ge)枝晶的晶体表面为{111}晶面簇，择优生长方向为〈100〉晶向族. 关键词： 三元共晶 晶体形核 深过冷 快速凝固     

Adaptive modeling, adaptive data assimilation and adaptive sampling

For efficient progress, model properties and measurement needs can adapt to oceanic events and interactions as they occur. The combination of models and data via data assimilation can also be adaptive. These adaptive concepts are discussed and exemplified within the context of comprehensive real-time ocean observing and prediction systems. Novel adaptive modeling approaches based on simplified maximum likelihood principles are developed and applied to physical and physical–biogeochemical dynamics. In the regional examples shown, they allow the joint calibration of parameter values and model structures. Adaptable components of the Error Subspace Statistical Estimation (ESSE) system are reviewed and illustrated. Results indicate that error estimates, ensemble sizes, error subspace ranks, covariance tapering parameters and stochastic error models can be calibrated by such quantitative adaptation. New adaptive sampling approaches and schemes are outlined. Illustrations suggest that these adaptive schemes can be used in real time with the potential for most efficient sampling.     

Calculation of stopping power for partially stripped ions using an oscillator model

Collision of swift ions with atoms was considered in this paper. The projectile and target atoms were modeled as assemblies of quantum oscillators and it was assumed that both, target and projectile could be excited or ionized, without charge exchange. The model presented here is an extension of the one given by Sigmund and Haagerup [Phys. Rev. A 34, 892 (1986)]. The number of electrons bound to the projectile, as a function of the projectile velocity, was used from Cabrera-Trujillo et al. [Phys. Rev. A 55, 2864 (1997)]. Contributions to energy loss from excitation of the projectile and targets were separately considered. It has been found that projectile excitation contributes up to 20% to the total energy loss in the lower energy region. Comparisons with other authors, including SRIM 2003, are also given and good agreement was found.